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semente

The Environmental thread + Conventional (HI-FI) wisdom is almost always invariably wrong

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13 minutes ago, semente said:

Would you agree that it's declining massively more rapidly now?

Perhaps the little girl won't live to be 30... Not that this isn't already happening in some areas of the globe.

 

You were the one should guilt trip, not me.

She may not live to be 30 as she is so fearful and panicked daily.  Nothing to do with climate change.  

 

I'd place a sizable wager that the world population will be larger in 14 years (when Greta is 30) than it is now.  Care to put up?  


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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8 minutes ago, semente said:

 

It was Greta's self-induced panic that triggered the alert.

 

And the fact of the matter is that the problem can only be solved through a change in paradigm, meaning political and economical model.

 

The ultra-liberal free-market consumerist US model of society has to go.

In my lifetime I've never felt such an ideological gulf in the Atlantic as I do now. The US I am sorry to note is no longer leader, no longer the beacon. It's becoming increasingly a sub-developed country with a few pockets of developed nation.

So are you fearful the next time Europe needs saving from itself the USA won't be there to pull you out again?  You could be right.  


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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11 minutes ago, esldude said:

She may not live to be 30 as she is so fearful and panicked daily.  Nothing to do with climate change.  

 

I'd place a sizable wager that the world population will be larger in 14 years (when Greta is 30) than it is now.  Care to put up?  

 

The causes of climate change don't only affect our habitat but also increase poverty and reduce access to clean water. Life expectancy has been decreasing in the poorer North of England for a few years now because of this.


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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2 minutes ago, esldude said:

So are you fearful the next time Europe needs saving from itself the USA won't be there to pull you out again?  You could be right.  

The UK is only now coming to grips with the demise of it's once magnificent imperial past. Talks of making our country great again are an unmistakable sign of the great decline that inevitably comes to all great nations...


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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This was written in 2004...

As Consumerism Spreads, Earth Suffers, Study Says
By Hillary Mayell
PUBLISHED January 12, 2004

Americans and Western Europeans have had a lock on unsustainable over- consumption for decades. But now developing countries are catching up rapidly, to the detriment of the environment, health, and happiness, according to the Worldwatch Institute in its annual report, State of the World 2004.

Perfectly timed after the excesses of the holiday season, the report put out by the Washington, D.C.-based research organization focuses this year on consumerism run amuck.

Approximately 1.7 billion people worldwide now belong to the "consumer class"—the group of people characterized by diets of highly processed food, desire for bigger houses, more and bigger cars, higher levels of debt, and lifestyles devoted to the accumulation of non-essential goods.

Today nearly half of global consumers reside in developing countries, including 240 million in China and 120 million in India—markets with the most potential for expansion.

"Rising consumption has helped meet basic needs and create jobs," Christopher Flavin, president of Worldwatch Institute said in a statement to the press. "But as we enter a new century, this unprecedented consumer appetite is undermining the natural systems we all depend on, and making it even harder for the world's poor to meet their basic needs."

The report addresses the devastating toll on the Earth's water supplies, natural resources, and ecosystems exacted by a plethora of disposable cameras, plastic garbage bags, and other cheaply made goods with built in product-obsolescence, and cheaply made manufactured goods that lead to a "throw away" mentality.

From Luxuries to Necessities

Globalization is a driving factor in making goods and services previously out of reach in developing countries much more available. Items that at one point in time were considered luxuries—televisions, cell phones, computers, air conditioning—are now viewed as necessities.

China provides a snapshot of changing realities. For years, the streets of China's major cities were characterized by a virtual sea of people on bicycles, and 25 years ago there were barely any private cars in China. By 2000, 5 million cars moved people and goods; the number is expected to reach 24 million by the end of next year.

In the United States, there are more cars on the road than licensed drivers.

Increased reliance on automobiles means more pollution, more traffic, more use of fossil fuels. Cars and other forms of transportation account for nearly 30 percent of world energy use and 95 percent of global oil consumption.

Changing diet, with a growing emphasis on meat, illustrates the environmental and societal toll exacted by unbridled consumption.

To provide enough beef, chicken, and pork to meet the demand, the livestock industry has moved to factory farming. Producing eight ounces of beef requires 6,600 gallons (25,000 liters) of water; 95 percent of world soybean crops are consumed by farm animals, and 16 percent of the world's methane, a destructive greenhouse gas, is produced by belching, flatulent livestock. The enormous quantities of manure produced at factory farms becomes toxic waste rather than fertilizer, and runoff threatens nearby streams, bays, and estuaries.

Chickens at a typical farm are kept in cages with about nine square inches (about 60 square centimeters) of space per bird. To force them to lay more eggs, they are often starved. Chickens slaughtered for meat are first fattened up with hormones, sometimes to the point where their legs can no longer support their weight.

Crowded conditions can lead to the rapid spread of disease among the animals. To prevent this, antibiotics are included in their feed. The World Health Organization reports that the widespread use of these drugs in the livestock industry is helping breed antibiotic-resistant microbes, complicating the treatment of disease in both animals and people.

continues here -> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2004/01/consumerism-earth-suffers/


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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I'd like to know who is financing Little Miss Climate Change and who is writing her scripts. Somewhere, someone is profiting.

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38 minutes ago, semente said:

 

The causes of climate change don't only affect our habitat but also increase poverty and reduce access to clean water. Life expectancy has been decreasing in the poorer North of England for a few years now because of this.

Ms Thunberg has talked of an existential threat.  It may come to that one day.  I say if she thinks her existence is under threat in her normal lifetime or even that of her children she is woefully mistaken.  If she believes what isn't true, then she'd be open to very misguided decisions about policy that effects people.  

 

Ms Thunberg has said she won't pursue a career in science or technology because it isn't a best fit for her.  I agree, but I don't wont her or her overly fearful ilk calling the shots.  It is science and technology that will supply the solution if one is possible.  

 

So what level of standard of living are you willing to call good enough?  You've posted consumerism spreads and the earth suffers.  I've seen analysis years ago that if Chinese citizens manage to meet the lowest part of middle class existence as it is defined in western countries you'd need the resources of about 3 earths to supply that.  So how about it, where do you call it?  How do you handle it?  You have posted we must end free markets as seen in the US, so what do you offer as a superior replacement in its place?  We can see some problems with things, but do you have a better idea which is really going to benefit the world in toto?  

 

I suggest instead of some radical break, we evolve a better solution  more slowly and soberly.  Due to politics, and culture, and the lack of a unified humanity that is the only path open.  It may be too slow, but I don't see other choices that are clear cut winners.  To wager some pie in the sky once and for all fix is what you'd expect from fearful and panicked people.  Stop spreading FUD.  Look at the issues and fix them one at a time as best we can.   Sure in retrospect vs whatever happens one could see a better path to have taken, but as long as it works well enough then that is all you are going to get.  You don't get do overs in the real world. 


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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19 minutes ago, esldude said:

So what level of standard of living are you willing to call good enough?  You've posted consumerism spreads and the earth suffers.  I've seen analysis years ago that if Chinese citizens manage to meet the lowest part of middle class existence as it is defined in western countries you'd need the resources of about 3 earths to supply that.  So how about it, where do you call it?  How do you handle it?  You have posted we must end free markets as seen in the US, so what do you offer as a superior replacement in its place?  We can see some problems with things, but do you have a better idea which is really going to benefit the world in toto? 

 

Business forced go fully environmental friendly.

Social welfare.

Frugality from consumers.

Better education. Education. And more education.

Free press.

Zero tolerance with extremism.

A just redistribution of the cake.

 

This was taken from The Guardian:

 

Wealth inequality is much worse, with 44% of the UK's wealth owned by just 10% of the population, five times the total wealth held by the poorest half.


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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5 hours ago, esldude said:

She may not live to be 30 as she is so fearful and panicked daily.  Nothing to do with climate change.  

 

I'd place a sizable wager that the world population will be larger in 14 years (when Greta is 30) than it is now.  Care to put up?  

 

This is the most ridiculous thing you've written yet. Daily? If I was on the world stage I would act how I want the world to hear my message. So she should just be a polite girl and not talk except when spoken to, and never on difficult subjects? Go back to the Victorian Age please (or are you just stuck in the 1950's?). And you don't know anything about her except from her few weeks of media appearances. Anyone that can pilot a boat across the Atlantic on their own isn't just wallowing in depression and self pity.

 

And she totally owned Trump on Twitter (replacing his backhanded insult as her bio), proving that she has a thick skin and a sense of humor, neither of which our current President has. Lets not even begin about the ability to take the higher road....


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34 minutes ago, charlesphoto said:

Why can't young people have a voice? Or better, young people should have a voice.

 

I'd go a step further and restrict voting to those aged between 18 and 65 (or whatever the legal retirement age is locally).

Just look at the demographics of the Brexit referendum vote:

 

vote1b.png

 

 

And if there were another, confirmatory, referendum:

 

_102876463_chart-vote_preference_brexit_

 

_102875626_chart-brexit_priorities-cysh4

 

_102875627_chart-second_referendum-7vzqu

 


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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3 hours ago, charlesphoto said:

 

This is the most ridiculous thing you've written yet. Daily? If I was on the world stage I would act how I want the world to hear my message. So she should just be a polite girl and not talk except when spoken to, and never on difficult subjects? Go back to the Victorian Age please (or are you just stuck in the 1950's?). And you don't know anything about her except from her few weeks of media appearances. Anyone that can pilot a boat across the Atlantic on their own isn't just wallowing in depression and self pity.

 

And she totally owned Trump on Twitter (replacing his backhanded insult as her bio), proving that she has a thick skin and a sense of humor, neither of which our current President has. Lets not even begin about the ability to take the higher road....

You really should pay more attention.  She has said more than once she feels fear daily.  She has said she started the protests because if she sat at home she was unhappy and fearful about the world.  She has said she wants the adults to feel her daily fear and panic.  So those are her words not mine.  

 

I'm not saying she shouldn't speak.  But make no mistake she is a media darling other people are using for the publicity.  The manner in which she describes climate related problems of the near future aren't in line with reality.  It is fear mongering even if she genuinely feels that fear. 

 

And no she didn't pilot a boat across the Atlantic.  She was ferried with father on the Malizia II skippered by Pierre Casiraghi and Boris Herrmann (a grandson of the prince of Monaco) and a cameraman.  This on a high tech carbon fiber racing boat which cost $4 million plus.  I'll give her credit for trying to live what she preaches more than say Al Gore.  On the other hand, they are flying another crew over on jet airliners to sail the boat back.  So like most such things just a show put on for the cause.  The owner says he wants to highlight that there are alternatives to jet flights for cross Atlantic travel.  I wonder if he'd show up and sail me to Europe for the cost of a plane ticket?

 

 


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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3 hours ago, charlesphoto said:

 

I feel ashamed my ten year old lives in fear of climate change. And we make a point to not talk about it at home (though he's actually better about it now than three years ago). Please just stop with the 'being used' meme. You, Mansr etc should be ashamed of that. Why can't young people have a voice? Or better, young people should have a voice. Just like with Parkland, they're the ones most at risk, yet are constantly told that they're not mature enough , or just let the adults handle it (right...). 

 

And FTR I can read: I never thought you were a climate change denier - in fact much of what you say makes sense - though imo we need to start fast, not slow, as slow isn't working. You're just oddly conservative and triggered for some reason by this passionate young woman. 

So your 7 year old daughter(3 years ago) was fearful enough you have to avoid the subject?  I'm sorry for you.  It shouldn't be that way.  This is what I don't like. 

 

It isn't being triggered it is about the unreality of it all.  It is about filling a generation of people with unreasonable fear during the years they are growing up.  That should not be happening.  This particular girl, Ms. Thunberg, is being used to hype up that same out-sized fear for the future.  One of the reasons she or someone like her is used is because everyone's natural reaction to any criticism is that mean old people are attacking this concerned little girl.  


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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7 minutes ago, Jud said:

40 inches of rain in East Texas from a storm that didn't even make it to hurricane status (second "thousand year event" there in what, 3 years?), Downtown Miami has 30 days a year of "sunny day flooding" and is on track for 150 days in 20-30 years, and we're worried that Ms. Thunberg is scaring the kids too much? I'm more worried she isn't scaring the (supposed) adults enough.

Don't become part of the hype.  2nd 1000 year event in 25 months.  

 

It is estimated Texas is seeing what were considered 100 year rain events about 4 times that rate now.  So yes a problem.  


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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Ms. Thunberg is telling us the truth about climate change, not just her feelings.  (unless I missed something in her stmts.)

 

There are 3 major effects of  climate change:

1. global warming

2. ocean acidification

3. shifts that favor plants using certain photosynthetic pathways (which favor high CO2) - that is now causing disruption of some ecosystem types in the US, and is a major contribution to extinction of some bird species

 

I left out ocean deoxygenation as I don't know how major an effect it is.

 

Human civilization may well be imperiled by climate change, or it may just be set back somewhat - perhaps a few centuries.  I call it the "New Dark Ages."

 

And I am an optimist among my scientific peers.

 

I consider it sufficiently important that I moved from one research area to another, as well as doing some other things.

 

Dennis, I don't think you grasp the clear danger, and suggest you read the latest IPCC reports or at least the summaries.

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16 hours ago, wdw said:

 

So here we are, a bunch of sad, mean, old men mocking an impassioned young woman...always shocked at the pure cowardice of most men.

 

Oh no, I, as an old and evil man, have my own ghosts that scare me, since the big pharma insists on publishing the evils of cholesterol and the world press, without knowledge about it, goes with the flow ...

 

But it seems that fashion is that we live in fear...

 

I have a very clear conscience. I have been a practicing ecologist all my life. Moreover, I am from a generation where there were no disposable blankets or plastic bags and even the milk came in reusable glass bottles ...

 

What I cannot admit is that a girl comes to scold us now and even worse, that the press and many politicians use it as a world leader in global warming. I admit there is a change in the weather and that all efforts made to modify them are valid (if it can be modified) ...

 

I do not believe that "rich men" intend to destroy our planet for selfish purposes for personal gain. If they have become rich, it is not precisely because they are fools ...

 

Roch

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12 minutes ago, Ralf11 said:

Ms. Thunberg is telling us the truth about climate change, not just her feelings.  (unless I missed something in her stmts.)

 

There are 3 major effects of  climate change:

1. global warming

2. ocean acidification

3. shifts that favor plants using certain photosynthetic pathways (which favor high CO2) - that is now causing disruption of some ecosystem types in the US, and is a major contribution to extinction of some bird species

 

I left out ocean deoxygenation as I don't know how major an effect it is.

 

Human civilization may well be imperiled by climate change, or it may just be set back somewhat - perhaps a few centuries.  I call it the "New Dark Ages."

 

And I am an optimist among my scientific peers.

 

I consider it sufficiently important that I moved from one research area to another, as well as doing some other things.

 

Dennis, I don't think you grasp the clear danger, and suggest you read the latest IPCC reports or at least the summaries.

I do grasp the danger.  I have read the IPCC report summaries and some parts of the reports themselves. 

 

I too think it might well result in a new dark age.  I think it is far enough along given the constraints of the world there is very little chance to keep things under 2 degrees.  I think more effort should be put toward how best to mitigate the effects on humans in the future.  As well as how to bring things back in line eventually.  

 

I don't think there is a good clear path to accomplish that which is feasible to implement.  It is a big nasty problem.  

 

So give me an idea of workable fixes.  I know of things that would work or be a step in the right direction, but you'll never get much of the world to go along.  How do you feed the world population without ruining the economies that supply that food?  Sure if you don't do something the climate may stop that supply of food in time anyway.  You'll be asking those in developed countries to impoverish to some extent their own children's future in order to help other people's unborn children.  People are selfish and aren't likely to do that.  What level of standard of living do you shoot for or limit people to living?


And always keep in mind: Cognitive biases, like seeing optical illusions are a sign of a normally functioning brain. We all have them, it’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it is something that affects our objective evaluation of reality. 

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workable fixes?

 

workable mitigation includes rapid deployment of solar PV, nukes (not rapid), NG as a transition fuel, and quite a few other things

 

due to the lag time (or dwell time in the atmosphere) of CO2 there is no workable fix - carbon capture is in R&D right now

 

- your posts don't appear to comport with the reading you've done, so I think you are not coming across well

 

 

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8 minutes ago, elcorso said:

do not believe that "rich men" intend to destroy our planet for selfish purposes for personal gain. If they have become rich, it is not precisely because they are fools ...

 

Some are fools and greedy (one potus comes to mind). Greedy fools?

 

"rich men" don't intend to destroy our planet for selfish purposes for personal gain, they intend to make more money and if destroying our plane is what it takes...


"Science draws the wave, poetry fills it with water" Teixeira de Pascoaes

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Consuming smarter would be a step in the right direction. Unfortunately plastic is here to stay as the US ramps up even more factories (jobs!) so investment in plastic disposal and recycling such as Germany and Japan have would be a small start. Recycling could be huge, but the way it's currently implemented isn't working. It needs to be streamlined from the actual packaging through to the consumer and then return. Electric vehicles, roll back clean air regulations that have been rolled back, initiatives to localize our food sources as much as possible, solar, nuclear, and the list goes on.

 

But the adults need to act like adults. It is sad that it takes a child to scold the world. We have not been good parents. 


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OFFICE:Naim Unitiqute V1>NACA5>KEF Ls50's, Cisco 2960PD. BJC cabling for ethernet aside from the Ghent and Naim stock AC cables with Wattgate or HifiKing Plugs. 

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