Increased Shipping Rates from China

[Ralf11]

super cheap labor will be worthless once the super cheap robots arrive

 

I agree re the IP theft

 

However, China has done a lot to reduce GHGs (from what a pure coal fired power economy would be given the growth in demand there)

 

Finally, I have to point out the superior SQ of analog coal-fired power.  PV is digital and sux

[John Dyson]

15 minutes ago, Ralf11 said:

super cheap labor will be worthless once the super cheap robots arrive

 

I agree re the IP theft

 

However, China has done a lot to reduce GHGs (from what a pure coal fired power economy would be given the growth in demand there)

 

Finally, I have to point out the superior SQ of analog coal-fired power.  PV is digital and sux

It seems that the pictures of cities in China remind me of the US in the 1950's and 1960's wrt air quality.  China might be making SOME progress, but I know how bad it used to be in  the US -- and China seems even worse.  Relationship between China and US would be more 'normal' if business wasn't tied to the PLA, IP coersion/theft wasn't happening, and China would have the same overheads WRT taking care of the environment.   I understand about low-end labor being less important for competition in the future, but today we still have the situation where we cannot compete because of being more responsible for our people than China.  (I don't want to go into the extreme overheads in the US health system coming from insane and self destructive policies and misdirected resources -- but the US is doing its own self-damage in the name of current politics.)

However -- this China problem has been building since at least the late 1980s, where the gov't officials have had an overly rosy view of the Chicoms - even signing away missile secrets.   We say to China -- we are nice guys -- here is all of this nice IP...   China answers by saying -- we don't care about being nice guys, but we (China) are willing to accept gifts from 'nice guys'.

I would hope that the US can figure out how to have a true, bilateral relationship with China, but this whole problem has been mismanaged for so many years -- it is time to do something about it.  This is NOT a local political issue now, it is existential.

 

John

[Ralf11]

AQ there is horrendous - they are still building coal plants too - but my point above is they are working hard on greener technologies & deployment, and are trying hard to drag people out of abject poverty (hence more coal; but less coal than if they were greening things up) 

 

I expect that China will caremore about protecting IP when they have their own IP to protect

 

 

and BTW in the early/mid-1800s the US was the el cheapo manf. country for a huge flow of goods to Europe - cheap crummy junk - mostly furniture

 

we see the same thing in post WWII Japan - cheap junk, replaced by the JIS system, the pioneering efforts of Soichiro Honda and others in other industries

 

and.. there was also the rise of quality manf. in Taiwan and an ad campaign "It's very well made in Taiwan"

 

so I think a lot of this is endemic to economic asymmetries 

[rickca]

Now Trump wants the US to pull out of the Universal Postal Union on 10/17.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ebay-warns-of-dramatically-increased-shipping-rates-if-us-pulls-out-of-universal-postal-union-2019-09-23?mod=mw_latestnews

[rickca]

This Barron's article gives a little more detail about the prospects of the USA leaving the UPU.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/universal-postal-union-upu-vote-on-international-postal-rates-us-withdraw-51569415835?mod=mw_latestnews

 

[Superdad]

6 minutes ago, rickca said:

This Barron's article gives a little more detail about the prospects of the USA leaving the UPU.

 

I would like to read the full article. But Barron’s is a subscription site so it only allows me to see the opening paragraph. 

[mansr]

19 minutes ago, Superdad said:

I would like to read the full article. But Barron’s is a subscription site so it only allows me to see the opening paragraph. 

This link works for me:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/universal-postal-union-upu-vote-on-international-postal-rates-us-withdraw-51569415835

[rickca]

7 hours ago, Superdad said:

 

I would like to read the full article. But Barron’s is a subscription site so it only allows me to see the opening paragraph. 

Here's an even more current update.  The US will remain the in UPU after a compromise proposal was adopted today.  However, it looks like the USA will now be able to set its own rates beginning July 2020.

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/universal-postal-union-vote-down-proposal-shipping-rates/563667/

[John Dyson]

On 8/23/2019 at 8:14 PM, Ralf11 said:

AQ there is horrendous - they are still building coal plants too - but my point above is they are working hard on greener technologies & deployment, and are trying hard to drag people out of abject poverty (hence more coal; but less coal than if they were greening things up) 

 

I expect that China will caremore about protecting IP when they have their own IP to protect

 

 

and BTW in the early/mid-1800s the US was the el cheapo manf. country for a huge flow of goods to Europe - cheap crummy junk - mostly furniture

 

we see the same thing in post WWII Japan - cheap junk, replaced by the JIS system, the pioneering efforts of Soichiro Honda and others in other industries

 

and.. there was also the rise of quality manf. in Taiwan and an ad campaign "It's very well made in Taiwan"

 

so I think a lot of this is endemic to economic asymmetries 

I agree with what you say.   However, now lets talk 'climate emergency', and the huge CO2 decrease in the US without needing to make some kind of economy distorting agreement.   EU isn't coming close to their goals, and China doesn't have serious goals because they are an 'emerging economy.'  There is a huge asymmetry here -- whatever the EU and US does, China will still keep on leveraging their postion not needing to follow through with world environmental challenges.  China has enough money now to do their fair share EVERYWHERE -- no need for IP theft, effective pollution cheating, under paying the people, etc.  They have PLENTY of money for spying though.

 

Most of those issues -- I don't care.  I only care about proper trade policies, no IP theft, and their fair share of global environment contribution.  Most countries need binding agreements to follow through, some countries are just naturally good at adapting -- China isn' amenable to either.

 

I say, fix the IP problem, look for the worst polluters that are getting worse, etc -- China is not a good global citizen, and we (the US/major western countries in general) need to take care of ourselves first, and spend the money lost to China doing something actually productive about pollution.

 

We are 'nice guys' (I mean, the better developed nations), and need to quit being taken advantage of.  It IS an existential issue for the developed west.  WE ARE VULNERABLE to our own folly.  China will NOT be kind when/if they take over.  We (the developed west) need to carefully manage our bounty -- helping the rest of the world when we can.  China will NOT reciprocate.

 

John

 

[PeterSt]

Hey, when are you guys finally get rid of this idiot ?

 

White House Weighing Limits on U.S. Portfolio Flows into China - Bloomberg

(Updated - September 27, 2019 11:45 AM EDT)

Trump administration officials are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with internal deliberations.

Among the options Trump is considering: delisting Chinese companies from U.S. Stock exchanges and limiting Americans' exposure to the China market through government pension funds. Exact mechanisms for this have not been worked out and any plan is subject to approval by President Trump, who has give the green light to the discussion, the report said.

Officials are also examining how the U.S. could put limits on Chinese companies included in stock indexes.

[Superdad]

1 hour ago, PeterSt said:

Hey, when are you guys finally get rid of this idiot ?

 

It shouldn't be too long...but likely will be too long. 

[RickyV]

22 minutes ago, Superdad said:

 

It shouldn't be too long...but likely will be too long. 

 

2 hours ago, PeterSt said:

Hey, when are you guys finally get rid of this idiot ?

 

White House Weighing Limits on U.S. Portfolio Flows into China - Bloomberg

(Updated - September 27, 2019 11:45 AM EDT)

Trump administration officials are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with internal deliberations.

Among the options Trump is considering: delisting Chinese companies from U.S. Stock exchanges and limiting Americans' exposure to the China market through government pension funds. Exact mechanisms for this have not been worked out and any plan is subject to approval by President Trump, who has give the green light to the discussion, the report said.

Officials are also examining how the U.S. could put limits on Chinese companies included in stock indexes.

 

 

Hopefully this is the beginning of a snowball effect. And then, Lock him up, lock him up.

[John Dyson]

7 hours ago, PeterSt said:

Hey, when are you guys finally get rid of this idiot ?

 

White House Weighing Limits on U.S. Portfolio Flows into China - Bloomberg

(Updated - September 27, 2019 11:45 AM EDT)

Trump administration officials are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with internal deliberations.

Among the options Trump is considering: delisting Chinese companies from U.S. Stock exchanges and limiting Americans' exposure to the China market through government pension funds. Exact mechanisms for this have not been worked out and any plan is subject to approval by President Trump, who has give the green light to the discussion, the report said.

Officials are also examining how the U.S. could put limits on Chinese companies included in stock indexes.

This is NOT motivated by little, short-term matters -- the IP/commercial/economic  issues are killing the US, let alone the predatory behavior of China.  This is the FIRST President since China's emergence that has a dose of reality WRT economics.  You can hate the Orange one for all kinds of reasons (I disagree with most -- most are hysterical - mistakenly trusting crazed biased press that is seamlessly mixing news and editorial), but his economic and business policy is very wise (there will be pain because of tactical matters.)  Short term money grubbers -- sure, they'll have short term problems --  very long term issues are more important (each little matter is a tactical part of a larger strategy.)

 

* Excess, spasmodic hatred of Trump is the MQA being sold in the mainstream press.  It IS similar to MQA -- and I don't like the guy -- just understand what is going on.  Big, important lies are important.  Little exaggerations are not important...  Too many big lies in the press, opinion being passed-off as the truth.

 

I don't want everything that I invent to be stolen or manipulated by any one financial and military organization outside of my own country/culture/financial system  -- yes China IS effectively a single organization -- Military and Commercial TOGETHER.  They don't follow any reasonable economic rules except to exploit other's weakness for profit and build miltary power/influence where they are NOT wanted (south china sea.)  I want China to play the 'game' by the rules, but as it is -- they only play to usurp.  They are also having a big laugh about fentanyl (opium wars payback.)

 

For example, a good international citizen decreases their CO2 output, like the US does (even without an agreement.)  China hides behind being an 'emerging' country, but are the 2nd (or 1st) strongest economic power.  Time to start paying some dues to the world.

 

I want China to play the same game that US/EU/UK/OZ/etc play, but they dont'.

 

John

 

[rickca]

21 hours ago, PeterSt said:

Hey, when are you guys finally get rid of this idiot ?

Easier said than done.  There is no way the Republican-controlled Senate will remove Trump from office, regardless of impeachment.  And the rich guys who fund things like political action committees are terrified by wealth taxes of up to 8% being proposed by some of the Democratic presidential candidates to pay for social programs like universal healthcare, universal child care and free college tuition.

[PeterSt]

 

1 hour ago, rickca said:

There is no way the Republican-controlled Senate will remove Trump from office, regardless of impeachment.

 

Yes, because of the 2/3rd never will be met.

 

 

So how many billion is this again ?

The sad thing is that tomorrow he will blame Powell again for the S&P500 being so low.

 

He is an idiot and a lunatic in one.

Do we even realize how much money is involved in his new little plan ? This is nothing like 25% import taxes over 300 billion or whatever it is today and tomorrow. The freak is enormously dangerous with (t)his power. 

 

Maybe someone can help me reasoning how this little trick will work out. Example : Alibaba. A market cap of 433 B. So only that one. Will that ground Alibaba when this is just cut out ? Will it even stop all the transactions from China with the Western world ?

Why is he even doing this, the US-China negotiations being due again for next month ?

Is Trump now going short on these now specific stocks, ahead of his next week's announcement that he will think about it for another year (which won't last that) so he can go long on them the usual two days after ?

 

 

3 hours ago, John Dyson said:

This is the FIRST President since China's emergence that has a dose of reality WRT economics.

 

Correct. He helps world economics completely down the drain. You are so right there.

 

 

[Ralf11]

the tariffs are costing a typical US family $800/year

 

OTOH, China steals IP like it's going out of style

[motberg]

On 9/28/2019 at 2:14 AM, Superdad said:

 

It shouldn't be too long...but likely will be too long. 

No more Uptone stuff for me....

[motberg]

On 9/28/2019 at 11:29 PM, PeterSt said:

 

 

Yes, because of the 2/3rd never will be met.

 

 

So how many billion is this again ?

The sad thing is that tomorrow he will blame Powell again for the S&P500 being so low.

 

He is an idiot and a lunatic in one.

Do we even realize how much money is involved in his new little plan ? This is nothing like 25% import taxes over 300 billion or whatever it is today and tomorrow. The freak is enormously dangerous with (t)his power. 

 

Maybe someone can help me reasoning how this little trick will work out. Example : Alibaba. A market cap of 433 B. So only that one. Will that ground Alibaba when this is just cut out ? Will it even stop all the transactions from China with the Western world ?

Why is he even doing this, the US-China negotiations being due again for next month ?

Is Trump now going short on these now specific stocks, ahead of his next week's announcement that he will think about it for another year (which won't last that) so he can go long on them the usual two days after ?

 

 

 

Correct. He helps world economics completely down the drain. You are so right there.

 

 

I do not follow this stuff but 11-11-2016 S&P=2164.45... right?

[lucretius]

On 9/25/2019 at 6:49 PM, John Dyson said:

I agree with what you say.   However, now lets talk 'climate emergency', and the huge CO2 decrease in the US without needing to make some kind of economy distorting agreement.   EU isn't coming close to their goals, and China doesn't have serious goals because they are an 'emerging economy.'  There is a huge asymmetry here -- whatever the EU and US does, China will still keep on leveraging their postion not needing to follow through with world environmental challenges.  China has enough money now to do their fair share EVERYWHERE -- no need for IP theft, effective pollution cheating, under paying the people, etc.  They have PLENTY of money for spying though.

 

Most of those issues -- I don't care.  I only care about proper trade policies, no IP theft, and their fair share of global environment contribution.  Most countries need binding agreements to follow through, some countries are just naturally good at adapting -- China isn' amenable to either.

 

I say, fix the IP problem, look for the worst polluters that are getting worse, etc -- China is not a good global citizen, and we (the US/major western countries in general) need to take care of ourselves first, and spend the money lost to China doing something actually productive about pollution.

 

We are 'nice guys' (I mean, the better developed nations), and need to quit being taken advantage of.  It IS an existential issue for the developed west.  WE ARE VULNERABLE to our own folly.  China will NOT be kind when/if they take over.  We (the developed west) need to carefully manage our bounty -- helping the rest of the world when we can.  China will NOT reciprocate.

 

John

 

 

Tariffs for Chinese goods makes sense for encouraging production to move away from China -- this should be a goal to address all of China's abuses including the violation of human rights and their support of "enemy countries", etc.  And the fact that China still has a despotic government leaves no hope of sustained positive change on China's part.

 

Production had already slowly been moving out of China but the tariffs are speeding it up.  The good thing is that once production is moved away from China, it will not return there. Eventually, there will be "cheap" goods again but made in India or Malaysia or Pakistan, etc.

 

The problem is that Trump and his administration have been characterizing the situation as a trade battle between the U.S. and China and trying to get a better trade deal.  It's not about trade.  It's about China's abuses and it's despotic government. Once production has moved away from China, a trade deal will be irrelevant in any case.

[motberg]

11 hours ago, lucretius said:

 

Tariffs for Chinese goods makes sense for encouraging production to move away from China -- this should be a goal to address all of China's abuses including the violation of human rights and their support of "enemy countries", etc.  And the fact that China still has a despotic government leaves no hope of sustained positive change on China's part.

 

Production had already slowly been moving out of China but the tariffs are speeding it up.  The good thing is that once production is moved away from China, it will not return there. Eventually, there will be "cheap" goods again but made in India or Malaysia or Pakistan, etc.

 

The problem is that Trump and his administration have been characterizing the situation as a trade battle between the U.S. and China and trying to get a better trade deal.  It's not about trade.  It's about China's abuses and it's despotic government. Once production has moved away from China, a trade deal will be irrelevant in any case.

I do not think this is true for the current administration.... the current trade battle focus is simply about putting the USA in the most preferential future trading position with China. Presently, I sense a great deal of respect generally between the two administrations and the affected parties within the supply chains (and I have a more advantageous view of this than most...)  

 

If they get a good deal, then freight/duty/paperwork will be reduced both ways...

[Cormorant]

14 hours ago, lucretius said:

The problem is that Trump and his administration have been characterizing the situation as a trade battle between the U.S. and China and trying to get a better trade deal.  It's not about trade.  It's about China's abuses and it's despotic government. Once production has moved away from China, a trade deal will be irrelevant in any case.

 

Not so.  Trade negotiator Peter Navarro frequently talks about China's "Seven Deadly Sins".  These are things that China must stop before the ongoing trade war can end.

 

From a recent Hill.com article -- Navarro said:

 

“Stop stealing our intellectual property, stop forcing technology transfers, stop hacking our computers, stop dumping into our markets and putting our companies out of business, stop state-owned enterprises from heavy subsidies, stop the [importation of] fentanyl [and] stop the currency manipulation,” Navarro told host Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday."

 

Now there are plenty of abuses within China going on too -- Like the sad plight of the Uighurs, to name just one.  In my opinion this by itself is reason enough to curtail Chinese trade.  But I think it makes sense for the administration to concentrate on ways China is screwing us.  Fentanyl, for instance - is it a weapon of mass destruction that China is foisting on Americans?

 

The Trump administration knows full well that moving production away from China is a good thing apart from whether a trade deal ever occurs, and spends a great deal of energy on it.  Many of the President's tweets address this very issue -- the latest being a tweet mentioning Apple moving some production to Texas.  The fantastic thing now is that the president has made production in China very uncool.  Can you imagine a CEO saying proudly now that they are moving production to.... China. 😉

 

 

[rickca]

OK now this tariff thing is spreading to US/EU trade.  Everybody knows that tariffs work, right?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/malmstrom-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-possible-before-boeing-ruling.html

[Cormorant]

And here comes some help for the Uighurs!

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/company-making-costco-baby-pajamas-flagged-forced-labor-n1063626

 

 

[rickca]

This is supposed to help the Uighurs as well, but it looks more like another aspect of the US/China trade war.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-to-blacklist-chinese-artificial-intelligence-companies-2019-10-07?mod=mw_theo_homepage

[Cormorant]

Good article, thanks for posting.

 

Ross said Monday’s action will ensure U.S. technologies “are not used to repress defenseless minority populations.”